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Research update: Sky Deutschland

November 10, 2011



Media / Broadcasting / Pay TV

A solid set of 9M figures should provide Sky Deutschland, one of the worst performing MDAX stock in the third quarter, with some ...


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Research update: Sky Deutschland

October 05, 2011



TV football broadcasting is not about to change

A six-year battle between a pub landlady and BSkyB could be over after the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled yesterday that she could use Greek set-top box decoder cards to screen Saturday 3pm Premier League football matches in her pub.
There is some misinterpretation of the ECJ ruling in our view: Even though the ECJ made clear that there can be ...


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Research update: Sky Deutschland

August 15, 2011



Equity ratio down to 21% - and falling

Operational highlights

Operational numbers slowed in the seasonally weak Q2 with 97k gross vs. 107k in Q2/10. Ongoing investments in programme, however, kept churn rate low at ...


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Research update: Sky Deutschland

May 12, 2011



Q1 in line with estimates, ...

Operational highlights
Gross adds were 140k in Q1/11, similar to Q1/10’s gross additions of 123k. Net subscriber growth was 73k, after Sky Deutschland added approximately ...


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Research update: Sky Deutschland

February 24, 2011



Where is the turnaround?

... But where is the financial turnaround?
Notwithstanding the solid operational metrics, Sky Deutschland was not able to improve profitability: For the full year, Sky Deutschland’s EBITDA loss was ...


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Research update: Sky Deutschland

November 11, 2010



Playing the HD game

Q3 overview
Sky Deutschland’s Q3/10 results are operationally improving, with another 45,000 net subscriber additions, with 90,000 HD subscriber adds, rising ARPU and falling churn. Notwithstanding these improvements, the results ...


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Research update: Sky Deutschland

September 30, 2010



The last one?

The current capital injection could be the last one
In the latest capital increase, a total of 168.9mn new shares were placed at a price of €1.05 per new share, resulting in proceeds of ...


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Research update: Sky Deutschland

August 03, 2010



How deep are the pockets of News Corp.?

The current capital injection could be the last one
Sky Deutschland plans financing measures to raise gross proceeds of at least € through a combination of a rights offering, the issuance of a convertible bond and/or a shareholder loan from News Corp. Major shareholder News Corp. has agreed to ...

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Research update: Sky Deutschland

November 13, 2009



Lessons learnt?

Germany is different. This seems to be one of the lessons, the management of Sky Deutschland should have learnt during the third quarter, since Q3 came in ...


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Research update: Premiere AG

February 17, 2009



Two more years in the red

... Our 12-month price target of €0.50 per share implies -79% potential downside and is derived from a standardized three-stage DCF model (WACC 9.3%, g 2.0%). Our price target ...


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Research update: Premiere AG

December 23, 2008



Doesn’t this sound familiar?

The implementation of a new financial structure is a prerequisite to the survival of Premiere. Following the recapitalization, Premiere will make considerable investments in programming, technology and marketing. Nevertheless, Premiere will post significant...


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Research update: Premiere AG

December 02, 2008



Not nearly enough

We advocate a return to consideration of Premiere's fundamentals in the company's valuation, as the stock's recent price performance has been purely emotionally driven. The fact that Premiere has been awarded the Bundesliga rights is a non-event and...


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Research update: Premiere AG

November 14, 2008



Greetings from the very bottom

We think that the business model of a pay TV provider has failed in Germany. Premiere will close 2008 with a record loss, its subscriber numbers are declining despite the broadcasting of...


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Research update: Premiere AG

October 06, 2008



Imaginary subscribers and fictitious bookings

1million subscribers have disappeared
Bad news from Premiere is no longer a great surprise. But the announcement made last Thursday took the biscuit – Premiere has been setting its subscriber figures far too high for years: 3.6mn subscribers at the end of the half-year shrunk to ...


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Research update: Premiere AG

August 07, 2008



Rising churn rate; Piracy + Bundesliga uncertainty

Weak Q2 figures
While Premiere reported Q2/08 revenues of €272.4mn, hitting our estimates of €271.7mn, both the EBIT of €-14.1mn and the net income of €-37.8mn fell short of our estimates of €-10.7mn and €19.7mn, respectively. Notably, the number of subscribers declined to...


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Research update: Premiere AG

February 15, 2008



Piracy, one-off effects and ARPU weakness

Unlike the customary optimistic statements made by Premiere management, our view of the published quarterly figueres is that they are a disappointment. Unsolved piracy problems should hinder the first half of 2008, the ARPU is far from target levels and the EBITDA guidance was only able to be achieved with...


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Research: Premiere AG

January 09, 2008



Every three years again

Between a rock and a hard place
We anticipate that Premiere will either lose the Bundesliga rights again in the coming year or will have to pay a significantly higher amount to retain the same level of exclusivity. The defensive tactic adopted by the management of only paying more for greater ...


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Research Update: Premiere AG

September 22, 2006



Business Model challenged

Since losing pay-TV broadcast rights to the German Bundesliga football, Premiere has seen increasing questions over its strategy. An agreement with the cable group Arena to show football in some regions gave Premiere some consolation. However, Arena retains....


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Research update: Premiere AG

December 21, 2005



Misjudgement further hits valuations

Germany’s pay-TV group has lost the key German football broadcast rights for the next three years. With possibly most current subscribers ...


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Research note: Premiere AG

November 18, 2005



New competition and format risks

Premiere is Germany’s main pay-TV group, but the country is dominated by free-to-air networks so high quality content is essential to attract customers. Subscription numbers may rise to ...


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